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Well, actually, Christmas will be here the same time it always is: December 25.
However, what does change are the cues for the shoppers.
That is, Thanksgiving falls as late as it can this year, on November 28. That means, for those keeping score at home and for the breathless business pundits, there are only 26 shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. This is six days shorter than a year ago, and the shortest since 2019.
That's why some retailers, especially those that are publicly traded, are making mighty efforts to lengthen the shopping season.
But, is there actual value in trying to prompt shoppers to start their Christmas shopping before they have even handed out Halloween candy? Yes, but...
Some retailers in this situation essentially freak out. But the pros, like you, know to keep asking questions. Before they decide what to do next to fix lagging sales, they want to know "Why?"
So, rather than guess the answer, here is a way to get to the numbers behind the numbers; to begin to know the "why" of your sales trends, whether they’re falling or rising.
All it takes is tapping into the data that's already in your POS system, and putting together a little summary tally sheet. The point is to get some key data together in one place so you can easily, quickly, and for free, compare and analyze your results.
This shows the average annual pre-tax income (in 2022) and average expenditures, for US total, and by generation.
And this chart shows total US population by generation, by age in 2022.
Granted, everyone in retailing who looks at these two charts from the Collage Group* will conclude something different. Didn’t you?!
A couple weeks ago, we received another very insightful email from a long time professional friend. Because of his unique perspective on retailing, we’re sharing a portion of his note.
First, you must understand that our friend had owned one of the finest specialty stores in the Midwest for years. Then, for the last ten years, he chose to work in sales for a prominent national retailer. He’s probably forgotten more about the nuances of retailing excellence than any of us even know.
We think you’ll agree with our friend. And probably recognize your own experiences.
“Yes, lots of challenges for xxxx and pretty much any retailer these days. They are wrestling with some legacy issues as well as societal issues like Millennials’ and Gen Z's general distrust of institutional authority and unhappiness with the hand they've been dealt.”
Maybe you've also noticed it. The recent articles about how retailers now have their inventories "more in line" after the glut of excess inventory caused by "supply chain disruption." Okay. That's good news. But, what jumps out at us is the frequent reference to "just-in-time" inventory management.
Look, if you can't measure it, you can't manage it. And, if you can't manage something, by definition (and experience!) it is out of control.
As we look out at the second half of 2023, we're actually quite optimistic for independent retailers worldwide. No, really! The statistics haven't yet borne out what we are "seeing," but just wait a bit. To begin our justification, let's look at the really Big Picture. Generally, the Covid pandemic has been wrestled down. Likewise, inflationary prices seem to no longer be a threat. The worrisome political scene has resumed its traditional state of boredom, and the major concern now is something we can't do much about: each day's weather. So, looking at the Big Picture, we see the general population for the second half of the year to be quite serene, even optimistic. And that bodes very well for shoppers' confidence!
Throughout the pandemic, millions of shoppers – including the older Baby Boomers – discovered the benefits of online shopping. Then, as brick-n-mortar retailers scrambled to survive, the increased availability of delivery, curbside pickup, BOPIS (Buy Online, Pickup In Store) and BORIS (Buy Online, Return In Store) was well received by a broad swath of consumers. We see that this has brought heightened awareness of two different retail strategies: Convenience Retailing versus Destination Retailing.
And here's the deal: retailers now must choose either one or the other of those two strategies. You cannot have one foot on the dock and one foot in the boat. You DO have to decide!
We're sure you'll agree. Misinformation can be very harmful. Retailers surely don't need more harmful anythings!
Just last week, we came across the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. It was a post on the Intuit Quickbooks site*, titled "Inventory Turnover Ratio." And the explanatory article was accompanied by an "Inventory Turnover Calculator."
What do we take exception to? The misleading and/or incorrect information it provides. For example, their "Inventory turnover calculator" requires two entries.
We must take exception. "Total costs involved in selling your products" is NOT the same as Cost of Goods Sold. Nor do they specify that it should be for a 12-month period of time.
We must take exception. What they surely meant to say is inventory @cost.
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