PERSPECTIVES

From The Co-Founders

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Tips, Tactics & Strategic Insights and Commentary
from The ROI Co-Founders, Pat Johnson and Dick Outcalt
Outcalt & Johnson: Retail Strategists LLC; Retail Turnaround Experts

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It's back-to-school season! 

We were struck by these comments from folks for whom "back-to-school" is more than a season. Look what a state superintendent of public instruction* had to say about the upcoming school year. 

  • "The sheer burnout of the last two years caught up with everybody."
     
  •  "But out of that came a genuine assessment of what matters most."

Lots of retailers can identify with those comments, don't you agree?

Or, these observations about the disruptions and uncertainties of the pandemic:

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As the final third of the year approaches, there's a "new era" afoot. There is optimism in the air. 

Optimism? Really? 

Yes! And it could catch a lot of folks by surprise. 

 

Consider these "early warning signs" of approaching good news:

  • Those surveys of "consumer attitudes" indicate that folks do reflect the news headlines regarding the economy – that is, respondents are pessimistic about "the economy." But when asked about their own financial situation, the responses were very positive; people feel good about their personal financial situation.

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You've no doubt seen the headlines and the commentary:

  • "Retailers Stumble Adjusting to More Selective Shoppers" *
     
  • "Consumers Uneven Spending Fuels Caution Among Retailers" **

Consumer spending is up, but not on what was expected, especially those publicly-traded chains that must report quarterly. 

  • "As people watched the prices of food and gas rise, their spending became more selective, leaving retailers with shelves of inventory they couldn’t get rid of." 
     
  • "Although some consumers are cutting spending on goods, it is being accompanied by increased spending on services," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. **

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It doesn't make any difference if you're selling tires, turbans or tuxedoes. 

Poor prior planning produces pitifully poor profits. 
(You can take that to the bank!)

We came across an article on this checklist theme for the rapidly approaching fall/Holiday season. 

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Artful Idea for Retention Bonus

When asked "How many people work for you these days?", one owner we know responded, "Oh, about half of them."

Hopefully you don't share that same lament.

But, most retailers know all too well the challenges and high costs of competing for talented employees.

And, keeping staff – versus dealing with constant turnover – is even more important. Especially to your bottom line. 

So we were intrigued by this report in CNN Travel*:
  • Germany's Ruby Hotels, which has 16 properties across Europe, is offering new recruits up to €500 ($511) to get a new tattoo, piercing or haircut once they reach six months of employment.

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One of the real killers of a retail business can be debt. But, how much is too much?

Debt can be quite stealthy as it grows. 

  • Seemingly small expense increases add up in the aggregate – maintenance costs, security, advertising, utilities, payroll, e-commerce charges, etc. 
  • Vendors may be eager to offer terms, but that too is more debt. Whether or not you pay interest on it, you still are obligated to pay. And vendors would rather have an accounts receivable from you – it's an asset for them – and a debt for you.

Especially in these times of increasing interest rates, creeping expansion of debt can quickly snowball into a much larger problem.

From the Benchmark pages on The ROI site, we have selected four retail verticals whose Debt-to-Worth ratio shows a frightening situation. The technical term we would use is "spooky, real spooky."

(click on each chart to see all key ratios for that vertical)

Pharmacies & Drug StoresFlorists

Office Supplies & Statiionery StoresPet & Pet Supplies Stores

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Embracing Uncertainty: The Essence of Retailing

"The mantra of 2022 should really be: No one knows anything," opined a business reporter.* "It’s stunning how little we understand about how the pandemic has changed our lives and our country. It’s not clear whether the U.S. economy is hot or not, or if big cities will be forever scarred." 
  • "The future of our online shopping habits is another unknown. This is not just a nerdy debate. Our collective buying behavior sways trillion-dollar companies, millions of retail jobs and the health of the U.S. economy." 

  • "The uncertainty about the direction of online shopping is one of the biggest questions facing the tech industry and financial markets right now."
Well yes, of course. The tech industry and the financial markets do prefer predictability. The uncertainties of retailing always have bedeviled them. And now, with Amazon's recent retrenching, backing off some expansion, their crystal balls have turned cloudy. 
 

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A frequent recommendation for how to navigate the current economic uncertainty is to be more diligent about controlling expenses, and focus on profit. (You'll see; we challenge that below.)

Hmm. Concentrating on profits is easier said than done in today's environment, with cost increases proliferating under the umbrella of inflation.